A Bifurcation-Theoretic Framework for the Controllability of Emergent Intelligent Systems

arXiv:2611.11734v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Real-world intelligent systems must reconcile two demands: the adaptability conferred by emergence and the steerability required for accountable deployment. We show that these demands are governed by two distinct bifurcations on the same object and that, consequently, increased capability does not imply increased controllability. Emergence is a bifurcation of the capability variable $S$, with criterion $\Gamma:=\mathcal F'(0)>1$ equivalent to the existence of a unique positive stable fixed point of a self-consistency equation, following solely from the concavity of $\mathcal F$. Controllability is a bifurcation of the permission variable $c$, whose dynamics include an erosion term and exhibit a saddle-node fold with hysteresis as the gate criterion $\rho^\ast$ crosses unity. Three quantitative results follow: the critical exponent distinguishes families rather than classifying the transition; the gating-cost bound $K(M)\propto\log(1+M)$ grows with scope, not capability; and the fold threshold is $\gamma_c\approx4\mu\kappa$. Calibrated in both directions, the criteria reproduce the two-dimensional Ising transition, admit two true-feedback order parameters, and reject nine candidate quantities, supporting the conclusion that the order parameter is geometric rather than capability-related. Since permission cannot be endogenized and no deployed system has been measured to satisfy $\Gamma>1$ and $\rho^\ast>1$ simultaneously, increased capability does not imply controllability.