Agri-SCHOLAR: Simulation-Grounded In-Season Rolling Advisories for Agricultural Crops Using LLM-Bounded Optimization

arXiv:2610.31003v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Existing agricultural advisories to farmers suffer from several limitations: (a) remain largely expert-driven, (b) do not adequately account for in-season weather, and (c) do not scale to individual farms. In this paper, our objective is to close these gaps by developing Agri-SCHOLAR (Simulation-Grounded Crop Harvest Optimization with LLM-Guided In-Season Advisory Rollouts). Agri-SCHOLAR is a rolling, in-season advisory framework that issues, at intervals of every few days or every week, a personalized advisory using the following information: soil and crop properties, observed weather to date, short-range forecast of weather, and a season extrapolation of weather based on historical analogs. The novelty and depth of Agri-SCHOLAR lies in each advisory being produced by a closed-loop system which couples multiple LLM agents with a powerful crop simulator (such as APSIM in our case). The simulator crucially serves as an evaluation oracle. In Agri-SCHOLAR, the LLM agents propose agronomically sound and feasible bounds on actionable parameters and an optimizer searches within those bounds against a multi-objective reward spanning yield, resource utilization, and economic feasibility. We conduct a detailed 11-year analysis of the maize crop in two selected locations of South Asia and show that Agri-SCHOLAR consistently outperforms the region's standard packages of practice and satisfactorily addresses the limitations of existing agricultural advisories.