AI Could Force 11 Million Americans Into New Careers By 2035, New Report Predicts

Contrary to popular belief, artificial intelligence could create more jobs than it eliminates by 2035, a new report from McKinsey Global Institute concludes. But that doesn’t mean today’s workers can breathe easily.

As AI, demographic changes, and broader economic forces affect the labor market, there could be a huge mismatch between where jobs are growing and the skills and location of available workers. As a result, McKinsey estimates that roughly 11 million American workers may need to switch occupations by 2035 in order to remain employed. This means roughly 770,000 workers will need to move into a new job each year, which is roughly 3.6 times the historical average according to McKinsey.

“These are workers in declining occupations who will need to find pathways to jobs that are in growing demand,” says Tanguy Catlin, director and senior partner at McKinsey Global Institute and co-author of the report.

McKinsey finds that only about one in seven dislocated workers have a direct pathway into a growing occupation, meaning they will need little to no retraining to make a career change. Meanwhile, nearly half of workers in declining fields will face what McKinsey calls an “unpaved pathway,” meaning they will need new credentials or certifications to make a successful transition.

Industries With Declining And Growing Jobs

When looking at declining industries, McKinsey estimates that more than 75 percent of workers who will need to transition into new fields work in office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics

This means there is a huge mismatch between the skills workers have in declining fields and the skills they will need for jobs in growing sectors. If the mismatch isn’t paid attention to and workers aren’t retrained, McKinsey notes, the problem won’t be a shortage of jobs, but a shortage of jobs displaced workers are qualified to move into.