Anatomy of Off-Policy Policy Gradient: Importance Sampling, KL Regularization, and Baselines

arXiv:2610.25725v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning has become a central tool for large language model (LLM) post-training, where policy gradient methods are routinely deployed off-policy, even though vanilla policy gradient assumes on-policy sampling. We study when such off-policy deployment is justified, and what roles its core ingredients, including importance sampling, KL regularization, and baselines, play in handling the resulting distribution shift. We show that for a general class of off-policy policy gradient updates, consistency, in the sense that the optimal policy remains a stationary point, requires one of two structures at the optimal policy: trajectory-level importance weighting, which suffers from the well-known curse of horizon, or KL regularization with a baseline equal to the optimal soft value, instantiated by the grouped mean. Focusing on the KL route, we identify it with the group-relative policy gradient (GRPG) update, establish an equivalence to a trajectory-level Bellman residual minimization objective, and obtain a finite-sample regret bound under all-policy coverage. This also gives a theoretical account of a variant of the empirically successful GRPO objective. We further uncover a hidden role of baselines in the off-policy setting: a constant shift in the baseline implements pessimism, the standard remedy in offline RL for partial data coverage. We instantiate this via the asymmetric REINFORCE objective, and connect it to the game-theoretic offline RL framework, showing a regret bound with single-policy coverage. Together, these results offer a unified theoretical view of off-policy policy gradient in LLM post-training and connect it to classical ideas in offline RL.