Anthropic will be 'most ridiculous IPO' of year, analyst says

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei speaks during the keynote address at Salesforce's Dreamforce conference at the Moscone Center on Sept. 15, 2026 in San Francisco, California.

Benjamin Fanjoy | Getty Images

As Anthropic barrels toward a potential $2 trillion market cap on the Nasdaq, one research firm is valuing the artificial intelligence company at a mere $150 billion and says Wall Street is about to face an "unprecedented test of investor gullibility."

In a report on Tuesday, independent financial research provider New Constructs called Anthropic's upcoming offering the "most ridiculous IPO of 2026."

To reach its desired valuation, the firm estimates Anthropic would need to record double the trailing year of profit for Nvidia, the world's most valuable tech company. Nvidia's net income over the past four quarters topped $190 billion. Meanwhile, Anthropic's revenue in 2025 was $4.6 billion as the company racked up a net loss of $42 billion, according to Reuters, which cited a leaked copy of the company's prospectus.

Anthropic's mounting operating losses coupled with emerging competition from a plethora of open-source models led New Constructs to conclude that, "We don't think Anthropic has a viable business."

"Since the arrival of open-source models, it's been clear that the closed models would struggle to generate profits," the firm wrote.

David Trainer, founder and CEO of New Constructs, has built a reputation on Wall Street as a notorious bear on IPOs. He's been right in the past.

New Constructs called WeWork "the most ridiculous IPO of 2019," ahead of the office-sharing company's planned offering. WeWork had been valued privately at $47 billion, but just six weeks after the New Constructs report, the company pulled its IPO amid weak demand and intense criticism surrounding its financials. WeWork filed for bankruptcy in 2023.

Anthropic didn't respond to a request for comment.

"I can't let that bother me," he said at the time. "I have to stay true to what I think is right."