Certifying Retraining Regret through Residual Structure

arXiv:2610.41410v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We certify a fixed ridge predictor's regret against full-feature retraining over every continuous completion of an interval-valued table. Our main theorem gives verifiable original-row residual conditions for a uniform error bound independent of nuisance-feature scale and rank, with an asymptotically sharp leading constant and quantitative leakage stability. Full-rank constructions separate certification dimension from feature dimension, including examples requiring directions beyond the candidate. Observed-row anchors make the conditions computable, while exact row geometry and global search return valid upper bounds and feasible original-table witnesses. A finite-scale contraction and common-domain moment fallback implement the structural result. Four real-world tasks retain all model features and certify twenty rank-three instances to width $10^{-5}$. Their primary median widths improve over centered moments. Joint residual refinement additionally certifies all twenty new response-independent masks to the same precision within 76.21 seconds. For a concrete fixed-point predictor contract, pure energy certifies thirteen of fifteen stopping decisions in ten seconds, versus five for moments. Refinement certifies all fifteen within 91.68 seconds at the same objective threshold.