ConformalMOS: Uncertainty-Aware MOS Prediction with Conformal Intervals and Ordinal Modeling

arXiv:2610.36126v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate prediction of human Mean Opinion Scores (MOS) is crucial for evaluating synthetic speech quality in text-to-speech (TTS) and voice conversion (VC). Most MOS predictors output only point estimates and ignore uncertainty, limiting reliability in model selection and deployment. We propose ConformalMOS, a framework that augments MOS prediction with conformal prediction to produce statistically valid prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage under exchangeability, alongside point estimates. During training, MOS labels are modeled in an ordinal-aware manner by converting one-hot targets into Gaussian-smoothed distributions, preserving score ordering. This improves uncertainty calibration, particularly when softmax confidence is overconfident on out-of-distribution speech. On BVCC datasets, ConformalMOS achieves competitive accuracy (MSE = 0.08) while delivering empirically validated coverage, enhancing reliability for real-world TTS and VC deployment.