Constrained Diffusion for Data-Scarce Orbital Monte Carlo in Constellation Tasking

arXiv:2610.09323v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Constellation Monte Carlo results depend on the orbital population used to evaluate a tasking policy. With scarce reference trajectories, replay limits geometric diversity, while independent orbital-element jitter can violate physical constraints. We study constrained diffusion for orbital-population augmentation. A force-conditioned diffusion model learns a 13-dimensional orbital prior, recovering semimajor axis from perigee altitude and eccentricity; Basilisk propagates each sample under one of five force-model tiers. Using 800 reference trajectories, we compare diffusion with jittered bootstrap, per-tier Gaussian mixtures, and a conditional variational autoencoder, and evaluate distributional fidelity, support shift, classical astrodynamics diagnostics, and 4,000 paired GoDSAT-compatible campaigns. The largest diffusion model achieves held-out trajectory MMD of 0.0171 +/- 0.0239, similar to bootstrap (0.0170) and the mixture (0.0198), but samples farther from training priors (median nearest-training distance 2.7 versus 0.10 standardized units). All generators fail to match the shifted-blind population (classifier AUC 0.991-0.998). Endpoint-conditioned samples satisfy Lambert boundaries but have greater interior error than the matched Lambert reference (29.2 versus 5.7 km mean RMSE). Residual diffusion improves selected sparse forecasts and catalog-mode recall but does not outperform classical estimators on custody ranking. In a fixed 16-satellite configuration, diffusion yields similar mean custody to replay and bootstrap, while the force-tier mixture shifts custody by about 5.5 percentage points. Constrained diffusion supports local, in-support augmentation but cannot replace orbital dynamics or serve as an operational posterior. Orbital-population construction is a consequential source of uncertainty in constellation analysis.