CreateScore: Domain-Theory-Informed Bayesian Routing for LLM-Based CV Screening

arXiv:2610.02972v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) can support rubric-based screening of CVs, but applying a high-capability model to every candidate and criterion is costly. We present CreateScore, a domain-theory-informed Bayesian network for criterion-level LLM routing. A hand-specified directed acyclic graph with Dirichlet-multinomial conditional probability tables converts CV evidence into posterior uncertainty; low-uncertainty decisions are resolved by a local 8B model and uncertain ones are escalated to a 120B reference model. The graph is causally motivated, but the system performs standard Bayesian conditioning, not causal inference. The escalation threshold is calibrated on a training fold (target: 70% resolved locally) and then frozen. On 200 synthetic Data Science CVs (139 training and 61 test candidates, five criteria), 77.7% of criterion decisions were resolved locally (237 of 305). Relative to a reference condition in which the 120B model adjudicated every criterion, routed escalation reduced token use by 65.2% and raised exact score agreement from 32.8% (8B alone) to 42.6% (95% CI 31.0-55.1%); at n = 61 the gain was not statistically distinguishable. The uncertainty signal did not, however, identify the decisions on which the 8B model erred: disagreement with the reference was 16.2% among escalated and 19.4% among locally resolved decisions (AUROC 0.47, 95% CI 0.39-0.56), no better than random selection. We also document how an earlier evaluation was invalidated when truncated reasoning-model outputs were silently replaced by local labels, and we recommend safeguards for cascade evaluation. CreateScore is supported as an auditable cost-reduction mechanism, not yet as a targeted error detector, and is not an autonomous hiring system.