Delay-Guided Attention for Quality Prediction in Multistage Manufacturing

arXiv:2610.29220v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quality prediction in multistage manufacturing is challenging when inter-stage lags vary over time, as measurements taken at the same timestamp may reflect different process states. Existing approaches often preserve production order but fuse timestamp-aligned features or model delayed dependencies implicitly, without identifying the upstream history relevant to each downstream observation. We propose Delay-Guided Attention for Multi-stage Forecasting (DAMF), which explicitly estimates inter-stage lag distributions and uses them to guide cross-stage information transfer for final quality prediction. For each adjacent stage pair, a lag predictor compares the current downstream representation with candidate lagged upstream representations. An occurrence-magnitude factorization separately estimates the probability of a positive lag and its conditional magnitude, yielding a sample- and stage-pair-specific distribution over discrete lag states without requiring plant-specified delays at inference. DelayAlignment incorporates this soft distribution as a temporal prior into differentiable cross-stage attention, while gated residual fusion regulates information propagation across production stages. For interpretation, segment-wise Viterbi decoding converts pointwise lag distributions into temporally coherent lag paths, whereas forecasting retains the soft distributions for alignment. On the real-world LiquidSugar dataset, DAMF improves final quality prediction over the compared baselines. Evaluations on two controlled-delay benchmarks show more accurate and stable lag recovery, and ablation studies support the contributions of lag prediction, delay-guided attention, and structured temporal decoding.