Difference-in-Differences on a Censored Rating Scale Can Manufacture an Effect: Evidence from a Pre-Registered LLM-Judge Audit

arXiv:2608.27309v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: LLM-judge audits assess bias by comparing ratings across matched conditions. Difference-in-differences designs compare two candidate responses within each item and then compare that contrast across a manipulated attribute. We show in closed form that this endpoint need not identify differential preference on the latent scale when ratings are bounded. A severity shift common to both responses produces an observed interaction whenever the scale bounds attenuate it unequally. We examine this problem in a pre-registered audit comprising 990 calls to a frozen pedagogy judge. The registered primary analysis did not detect an effect of the stated learner profile on scaffolding preference. The only nominally significant secondary interaction concerned productive struggle ($+0.378$ points; $p = 0.002$). A post-hoc construction with zero differential preference reproduced 79 to 85\% of this interaction using the observed severity shift and the scale floor alone. The observed interaction therefore does not identify differential preference on the latent scale.