Do Ray-Traced Cities Make a Better Channel Prior for an Unseen Site? A Pre-Registered Study in Simulation, and a Test on Measured Channels that Reverses It

arXiv:2611.05128v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Channel estimators at a newly deployed base station usually start from 3GPP stochastic channel models, which describe no particular street. We ask whether a channel prior pooled from many ray-traced cities serves an unseen site better than the 3GPP CDL models, and whether learned estimators make the difference. With Sionna RT on 14 city scenes, LMMSE estimation from covariance priors, leave-one-city-out evaluation, and pass/fail bars written down before each main experiment, we find in simulation that the pooled prior sits about 0.6 dB from a site-trained estimator with no site measurements, about what CDL reaches after 50 measurements. Learned models added little: at most 0.65 dB in estimation, and in channel prediction a simple classical method beat CNN predictors by 1.8-12 dB from 2 ms ahead. On measured channels from the DICHASUS outdoor dataset (1.272 GHz, three 2x8 arrays on one building) the result reversed: the pooled ray-traced prior was 3.2-4.1 dB worse than CDL. The simulated channels were too clean; with users at the real distances, even a scattering level tuned from 50 site measurements left the prior about 2 dB behind CDL. A pre-registered follow-on on two more measured environments found the generic CDL prior 2.1-4.7 dB from a site-trained one: no further in a factory hall than on the street, furthest in a small lab room. Finally, a hallway model calibrated to measurements by differentiable ray tracing reproduced delay spread, but as a prior in an unmeasured part of the hallway it was 4.5 dB worse than CDL on the full array. All measured results come from one sounder.