Extreme Event Likelihoods with Guided Generative Models

Across science, engineering, and finance, many of the most important risks come from low-likelihood, high-impact events. Estimating the probability of these...

Across science, engineering, and finance, many of the most important risks come from low-likelihood, high-impact events. Estimating the probability of these events with brute-force Monte Carlo sampling—running a model repeatedly with randomly drawn inputs to estimate the probability of rare outcomes—can require an excessive volume of model iterations, especially when each sample comes from an…

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