From Spectra to Joint Schedules in LLM Pre-training: 3+3(+2) Scaling-Law Regimes

arXiv:2609.40148v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Power-law learning curves are often treated as fixed properties of a model and its data, although learning-rate and batch-size schedules can change the observed loss. We study this dependence in noisy online SGD with linear random features. Conditional on the representation, an exact Volterra equation separates two response components: a forcing term that propagates unresolved target error and a memory kernel that propagates stochastic-error injections. We prove that either component follows a power law if and only if its cumulative weighted spectral mass has the corresponding low-spectrum scaling; individual eigenvalues and target coefficients need not obey coordinatewise power laws. Under a joint schedule, intrinsic time $T_t=\sum_{s