Fusion Under Component Failure: Negative Results and Failure Modes in Ensemble AI-Generated Image Detection

arXiv:2609.31749v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We built an ordinary stacking ensemble for AI-generated image detection -- three open detectors producing five scores, fused by a gradient-boosted meta-learner that treats a detector's failure as missing data -- deployed it, and then evaluated it against three controls it should have faced first. This paper reports what the controls found, including where they overturned our own earlier conclusions. Fusion is worth its cost only when refitted on the target domain. The shipped meta-learner, fitted on a separate corpus, does not beat its best single member on 2000 StyleGAN faces (AUC 0.9896 vs 0.9961; McNemar p = 1.000). But a stacker refitted in-domain beats that member plus a post-hoc calibrator (Delta-AUC = +0.0025, [+0.0014, +0.0038]; p = 3.4e-4). An earlier draft claimed the calibrated single detector won outright; that comparison mixed regimes and we correct it here. One corpus is not an evaluation. On 80 screenshots every model's AUC interval contains 0.5. We can say nothing stronger: the difference between the ensemble's drop and its best member's is [-0.185, +0.115]. Abstention is real, correlated, and mishandled. With four of five detectors silent and the survivor reporting "real", the system returns P(AI) = 0.9985, because an all-NaN input scores 0.9995 in a learner never fitted with missingness. The three AIDE checkpoints fail together, sharing one preprocessing path. A quorum rule requiring two distinct architectures prevents both failures with no retraining. We also find Corpus A carries a class-conditional JPEG bias severe enough to separate the classes from the header alone, which limits every in-domain number we report. Code, harness, hash-identified artifacts and all corrections are released.