Grounded or Guessing? LVLM Confidence Estimation via Blind-Image Contrastive Ranking

arXiv:2605.10893v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large vision-language models (LVLMs) suffer from visual ungroundedness: they can produce a fluent, confident, and even correct response driven entirely by language priors, with the image contributing nothing to the prediction. Existing confidence estimation methods cannot detect this, as they observe model behavior under normal inference with no mechanism to determine whether a prediction was shaped by the image or by text alone. We introduce BICR (Blind-Image Contrastive Ranking), a model-agnostic confidence estimation framework. The LVLM stays entirely frozen; instead, we extract its hidden states twice per sample, once with the real image-question pair and once with the image blacked out while the question is held fixed. A small, separate probe is then trained on the real-image hidden state, regularized by a ranking loss that penalizes higher confidence on the blacked-out view, teaching it to treat visual grounding as a signal of reliability. At inference only the single real-image pass is used, so BICR adds zero cost beyond a standard single-view probe. Evaluated across five modern LVLMs and seven baselines on a benchmark covering visual question answering, object hallucination detection, medical imaging, and financial document understanding, BICR achieves the best cross-LVLM average on both calibration and discrimination simultaneously, with statistically significant discrimination gains robust to cluster-aware analysis, at 4-18x fewer parameters than the strongest probing baseline.