Humanoid bottlenecks emerge amid US-China tensions

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China’s dominance in critical humanoid hardware is exacerbating a supply chain bottleneck for Western developers, as rising production volumes and ongoing geopolitical tensions increase pressure on suppliers.

A new report from Smart Analytics Global (SAG) found China dominates the ecosystem of motors and reducers for humanoid robots, with the advantage “going beyond individual suppliers.”

The report highlights persistent U.S.-China tensions, brought to something of a head with the FCC’s banning of foreign-made humanoid robot imports, as a potential catalyst to make this dominance a critical supply chain problem for Western producers.

“The biggest vulnerabilities would emerge in the hardware supply chain, particularly motors, precision reducers, actuators and other critical mechanical components,” said Linda Sui, founder and analyst at SAG. “These components are essential to humanoid robot movement and manipulation.”

The risk of supply chain dominance

The specialist nature of humanoid components means replacing an existing supplier would be challenging, as alternatives may require significant redesign, testing and validation. Germany’s Schaeffler and Japan’s Harmonic Drive Systems provide important non-China alternatives, but their current humanoid volumes remain relatively small.

Sui added that the risks extend to upstream materials and manufacturing processes, including permanent magnets, precision gears and bearings.

Ultimately, the tensions could push humanoid manufacturers to prioritize supply-chain resilience over cost.

“We believe Western humanoid manufacturers may have to make this choice, unless there is a meaningful shift in U.S.-China trade and technology policies toward greater openness,” Sui said. “Under the current geopolitical environment, supply-chain security and resilience are becoming increasingly important strategic considerations.”