Improving the Predictive Performance of Bootstrap Aggregating by Dirichlet Resampling

arXiv:2609.21454v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We revisit Breiman's observation that reducing inter-tree correlation without weakening individual trees can improve random forests. Building on this principle, we introduce two variants: Dirichlet-Multinomial Bagging Random Forest (DM) and Dirichlet-Weighted Random Forest (DW). Both modulate sample reweighting via a concentration parameter $\alpha>0$. We provide a simple theoretical criterion that clarifies when these variants behave indistinguishably from standard random forests, and we use it to guide a lightweight tuning strategy. In a controlled evaluation on public classification benchmarks, DM and DW are consistently competitive and often stronger than other random-forest (RF) baselines, with negligible additional runtime.