Information-Matched Auditing of Conversational Emotion-Shift Forecasting: A Leakage-Safe Evaluation Protocol

arXiv:2611.05895v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Comparisons in conversational emotion-shift forecasting are easily distorted when a learned model receives rich features but its transition baseline is given a noisy or unavailable current-emotion label, when hyperparameter budgets differ, or when target-turn information enters the representation. We present an information-matched, leakage-safe auditing protocol that closes these gaps with an explicit commitment point, executable causality tests, equal four-configuration validation searches, and seed-dialogue-aware inference. Applying it to six causal model families on four text corpora and two feature-source sensitivity configurations shows that a deployable train-only current-emotion classifier feeding the transition baseline yields a different verdict than an oracle diagnostic where both sides receive gold current emotion. Under the deployable condition, learned models improve over the predicted-label baseline on all four primary corpora; DailyDialog gains are large and survive a 72-comparison Holm correction (best ROC-AUC gain = +0.167, adjusted p=.0144). Under matched gold information, the baseline remains competitive on IEMOCAP and stronger on MELD, while every model retains a large DailyDialog advantage. We additionally report precision-recall AUC, calibration, a strictly utterance-local feature control, same-person self-shift forecasting, and a future-access dose-response test. An eight-item leakage checklist accompanies the protocol. Code, raw seed predictions, and reporting artifacts are available from the corresponding author upon request.