It’s A Wash: AI Will Create As Many Jobs As It Eliminates, Study Suggests

Artificial intelligence is going to take aways jobs. AI is going to create jobs. Perhaps the answer is actually somewhere in the middle, in that AI is going to do both, thereby keeping things on an even keel.

That’s one of the takeaways from the latest analysis of AI adoption published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which surveyed and looked at data from 9,000 executives and related studies across the globe. Most executives report that AI has had zero net effect on firm employment over the last three years, and a majority predict little net impact over the next three years.

It’s possible AI is creating as many jobs as it displaces. Suraj Srinivasan, professor at Harvard Business School, has a term for what may be taking place: an “asymmetric” impact, in which his research found a drop in job postings for occupations highly exposed to automation following the launch of ChatGPT, but accompanies by a rise in employer demand for jobs likely to be augmented by AI.

Eighty-seven percent of executives in the NBER study indicated there was no impact by AI on employment within their firms over the past three years. Another seven percent report a positive effect, and six percent said AI decreased their employment levels in recent years.

There may be a rise in job displacement as time goes on, however. At least 28% of executives anticipate that AI will cut into their employment kevels over the next three years, versus only 16% expecting AI to kick off positive growth. Still, a majority, 57%, still expect no impact.

The averages point to little change. “Executives expect AI to reduce employment at their own firms by an average of around 0.4% over the next three years," the NBER co-authors state. “This projected decline is modest and reflects only incumbent firms; employment creation at new firms could offset some or all of it.”