LM-X: Explainable Vision--Language--Action Modeling via Progress, Event, and Uncertainty Prediction

arXiv:2608.25757v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large-scale vision--language--action (VLA) policies have advanced generalist robot control, yet most remain stimulus-to-action black boxes: actions are exposed, but their explanatory state is not. They provide no native account of three explanatory signals: task progress, the next semantic transition, or local command reliability. Prior work shows that progress and event structure aid long-horizon control and that uncertainty supports monitoring; however, such capabilities are typically added or extracted only after action pretraining. The field therefore lacks a VLA foundation model whose explanatory state is jointly pretrained with control. Drawing on biological sensorimotor organization, in which outcome-sensitive, event-segmented, and probabilistic predictions structure behavior, we introduce LM-X. LM-X learns three directly supervised online signals: return-to-go (RTG) estimates visible progress and state quality; event-to-go (ETG) predicts the action sequence to the next semantic event; and heteroscedastic action-flow variance reports local command reliability. RTG conditions ETG and both condition action generation; uncertainty is estimated inside the action expert, making explanation part of control rather than a post-hoc description. We pretrain LM-X on more than 20,000 hours of heterogeneous real-robot trajectories, including over 1,000 hours of failed rollouts. LM-X achieves 74.1\% success on 50 randomized-hard RoboTwin2.0 tasks and 73.5\% on seven real-robot tasks, compared with 55.4\% and 50.7\% for GR00T N1.7. Its signals track progress and regression, anticipate event-scale motion, detect high-error actions, and provide advance failure warning. These results establish LM-X as an explainable VLA foundation model that couples transparent predictive state with stronger generalist control. Github: https://github.com/loongOpen/LoongWu-LM-X-VLA