OverdoseMoE: A Multi-Expert Framework for Opioid Overdose Risk Prediction

arXiv:2609.40108v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Opioid overdose remains a major clinical and public health burden, highlighting the need for scalable approaches to identify patients at high risk. Here, we investigate diagnosis-specific adaptation for 180-day opioid overdose risk prediction from patients' preceding one-year longitudinal ICD histories. We develop OODMAMBA and OODQWEN through continued pretraining on longitudinal diagnostic sequences followed by task-specific fine-tuning. Building on the stronger Qwen-based predictors, we further propose OVERDOSEMOE, a multi-expert framework that integrates models of different scales using complementary expert-weighting strategies. Diagnosis-specific adaptation consistently improved predictive performance over general-purpose language-model baselines, with OODQWEN achieving an AUPRC of 24.47 and an AUROC of 68.56. OVERDOSEMOE further improved discrimination and precision, achieving an AUPRC of 25.17 and an AUROC of 69.49 while outperforming the strongest single-model baselines. Among patients ranked in the top 5% of predicted risk, OVERDOSEMOE identified substantially enriched overdose risk, achieving a PPV of 25.38% while retaining meaningful recall. Evaluation on an independent MIMIC-IV cohort further demonstrated cross-cohort robustness, with complementary weighting strategies showing advantages across different performance measures. These findings demonstrate that diagnosis-specific language-model adaptation combined with multi-expert integration can improve opioid overdose risk stratification and support more robust prediction across heterogeneous electronic health record populations.