P(Yes): 15$\times$ Improvements via Test-Time Scaling of Decision Models

arXiv:2610.25474v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decision models answer typed questions, such as multiple-choice or yes/no questions, with a probability for each option. We add test-time search to frozen decision models, with no training: we show the model a complete proposed answer, read off its probability of saying "Yes" to the proposal's correctness, and search for answers that it rates higher. The search is done either by editing one answer at a time or by joint optimization, which changes several answers at once. Search raises accuracy for every model and test set we tried, and the gains are largest for exact correctness on logic puzzles, where every answer in a task must be right. On 128 such puzzles, it takes Qwen3.8-27B from 2 to 30 exactly correct puzzles ($15\times$) and its per-blank accuracy from 27.8% to 48.5%. On a shared set of 47 puzzles, searching over each model's own Yes/No score raises the per-blank accuracy of StartLux Instant, Perplexity Decider, Clef, and JEV, which we reach only through its public API, by 4.0 to 13.0 percentage points, and raises the number of puzzles they get exactly correct, out of 47 and averaged over three search seeds, from 10 to 35, 9 to 26, 2 to 11, and 9 to 31.7 respectively.