Probe What-If Worlds Before You Ship: Persona Simulation for Real-World Decision Making

arXiv:2611.14700v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: User research and system testing reveal whether products and services meet user needs, yet recruiting specialized participants, designing controlled what-if comparisons, and repeating studies as designs evolve often bottleneck design iteration and data-driven decision-making. We present a framework and execution infrastructure that translates real-world industry inquiries into controlled experiments with simulated users. Our methodology formally defines the target cohort, experimental stimuli, and decision-relevant metrics, while the pipeline supports large-scale concurrent runs over cohort-stimulus-environment combinations (survey, web, chatbot, and OS app), auditable trial-level logging, cohort-level outcome aggregation, and cross-cohort and cross-variant statistical reports. Across twelve industry partner cases spanning five domains, we show how constructing hard-to-reach or what-if persona cohorts supports exploratory studies and distills simulated responses into testable design hypotheses. Cross-model comparisons on selected cases largely preserve primary conclusions, whereas perturbing or ablating persona attributes alters service outcomes, effect sizes, and inter-group differences, indicating that grounding target cohorts in detailed personas materially shapes simulation results. Together, these studies show that persona-enabled agents can test specified cohorts at design speed, diagnose systems under test, and deliver directional evidence that focuses problem definition, steers design and strategic decisions, and guides further study.