Rethinking the Unsupervised Paradigm in Time Series Anomaly Detection: An Empirical Study and Minimalist Baseline

arXiv:2511.16145v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) research predominantly focuses on unsupervised architectures to model normal data dynamics under label scarcity. However, practical deployments frequently archive historical operational incidents, questioning whether continuous unsupervised architectural scaling remains the most cost-effective pursuit. In this paper, we empirically quantify the trade-offs between supervisory signals and model complexity. We introduce STAND, a deliberately minimalist supervised baseline based on bidirectional recurrent encoding. Across five benchmark datasets evaluated under a strictly disjoint out-of-sample temporal protocol, minimalist supervised models achieve competitive or superior accuracy relative to complex unsupervised alternatives. Furthermore, controlled label-scaling and few-shot evaluations confirm that these supervisory advantages persist under constrained historical event budgets, while STAND exhibits higher prediction certainty and sharper event delineation than reconstruction-based baselines. These findings encourage the TSAD community to complement algorithmic complexity with data-centric label utilization when annotations are accessible. The source code, benchmark datasets, and an extended Supplementary Document are publicly available at https://emorzz1g.github.io/STAND.