Self-Aware Knowledge Probing: Evaluating Language Models' Relational Knowledge through Confidence Calibration

arXiv:2601.18901v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Knowledge probing quantifies how much relational knowledge a language model (LM) has acquired during pre-training. Existing knowledge probes evaluate model capabilities through metrics like prediction accuracy and precision. Such evaluations fail to account for the model's reliability, reflected in the calibration of its confidence scores. In this paper, we establish an empirical framework to evaluate the calibration of relational knowledge in a closed answer-set setting. We cover three modalities of model confidence: (1) intrinsic confidence, (2) paraphrase consistency and (3) linguistic confidence. Our extensive analysis of 21 causal and 8 masked language models reveals that most models, but especially those pre-trained with the masking objective, are overconfident. The best-calibrated scores come from confidence estimates that account for inconsistencies due to statement rephrasing. Moreover, calibration improves when increasing the number of answer options.