SPACE: Sparse Predictive Attractor via Counterfactual Eviction for Streaming Video Memory

arXiv:2609.32592v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Fixed-capacity streaming video memory requires repeated eviction decisions whose effects accumulate over time. Yet existing policies are evaluated primarily in terms of retained information or downstream accuracy, leaving how repeated updates alter the futures supported by memory largely unexamined. We define a memory's predictive state as the future representations supported by its retained history and formulate eviction as counterfactual control over transitions in this space. We introduce SPACE (Sparse Predictive Attractor via Counterfactual Eviction), which uses a frozen multi-horizon JEPA to predict the future representations induced by alternative eviction actions. Counterfactual utility identifies future-useful alternatives, while slow predictive-basin geometry determines when to correct avoidable drift and when to adapt to sustained predictive change, without online parameter updates. We further introduce MABS-Bench, which evaluates future-task sufficiency, within-regime predictive stability, transition responsiveness, and perturbation recovery under matched causal streams and memory budgets. Across multiple video datasets, SPACE yields consistent improvements in dataset-native task performance while reducing predictive-state drift.