Suggested Is Not Superseded: A Pre-Registered Evaluation of a System-One Model as a Memory-Retirement Gate

arXiv:2610.15710v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-term memory for assistants needs a gate that decides when a new utterance retires an old stored claim. Benchmark labels for this step mark a pair as changed or not, so they cannot tell a gate that acts on established change from one that acts on a hint. We write a task contract that separates the two (SUPERSEDED vs. NEEDS-CONFIRMATION vs. COMPATIBLE), label 500 test pairs built from STALE (change pairs plus same-user controls) with three LLM annotators and two human adjudicators (one author and a second annotator; provenance reported), and evaluate Jev, a typed "System One" decision model, under pre-registered hypotheses. Of the 179 test pairs STALE marks as changed, 72 meet the contract's bar for an established change. Jev never retired a claim on 141 same-conversation non-changes. Its failure is premature retirement: the binary gate retires 39.2% of claims whose change is only suggested. A three-way decision cuts this to 15.5% at a 15.3-point detection cost, which misses our pre-registered 10-point budget, and it lands on the binary gate's own threshold frontier; these verdicts hold under three readings of the gold labels. On a held-out vault scored against a second annotator's labels, a cascade that escalated uncertain cases to a reasoning model and looked best on development data was indistinguishable from simply raising the threshold (premature retirement 26.8% vs. 6.5% on dev). Part of the gap comes from the gold labels: relative to that annotator's reading, LLM-majority gold shares most of its errors with a same-family escalation model, and an identity for binary labels says how much such shared errors hide. The rest is small-sample selection on development data. For builders this means a binary score should not be wired to delete: route suggested changes to pending evidence, and do not trust a cascade selected on development data of this size.