Top AI experts badly underestimated how fast the field is moving, study finds

Leading AI experts have consistently underestimated how fast AI is advancing, according to the Forecasting Research Institute. AI reached gold-medal level at the International Mathematical Olympiad five years ahead of the median expert forecast, and Anthropic's annualized revenue is about five times what experts predicted. But forecasts for real-world uses like self-driving cars paint a more mixed picture.