Towards a Belief-Based World Model for LLM Agents

arXiv:2609.00455v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are being used as policies for autonomous decision-making and planning in many domains. Despite their strong reasoning capabilities, LLMs struggle with long-horizon tasks, especially under partial observability. World models are a promising way to enhance policy performance, both during training and inference. During inference, agents currently use world models to simulate the consequences of candidate actions before choosing an action, which can improve decision-making. However, we argue that simulation alone is an incomplete interface for decision-making under partial observability: simulation does not adequately capture uncertainty about the current state, which agents may need for accurate decision-making. We address this limitation with Belief-Based World Models (BB-WMs), which maintain a belief that LLMs can query to access information on what is known and uncertain about the current state. Before developing methods to learn accurate BB-WMs, this paper focuses on a more fundamental question: does exposing a world model's belief directly to an LLM policy improve decision-making? Our results show that giving LLM agents access to beliefs improves task performance under partial observability, while remaining complementary to existing simulation-based world models. Code: https://github.com/skumar-ml/belief-world-models.