TRACE: A Multi-Agent System for Autonomous Physical Reasoning for Seismology

arXiv:2603.21152v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Modern seismic networks resolve earthquake sequences in unprecedented detail, yet explaining how large earthquakes emerge from evolving fault systems remains difficult. We introduce TRACE, a seismology-guided artificial intelligence agent that plans and executes workflows while preserving auditable evidence chains from observations to physical interpretation. We evaluated TRACE through 104 benchmark tasks and two complementary earthquake sequences. For the well-studied 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, TRACE constructed a high-resolution catalog from continuous waveforms and retrospectively recovered delayed cascading activation between the Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 earthquakes without a prescribed target interpretation. In the less-understood 2025-2026 Sanriku sequence off northeastern Japan, TRACE developed a testable interpretation of progressive destabilization within a segmented megathrust. Its synthesis linked coupled seismic-aseismic activation around the MJ 6.9 sequence and subsequent persistent, spatially segmented shallow-interface activity to a megathrust patch that lay between regions of past large coseismic slip and later hosted the MJ 7.7 rupture. These results open a path from seismic observations to testable physical insight.