Trump, Xi seek trade stability and deals, but AI, tariffs and Iran loom large. What to watch

China's President Xi Jinping (R) and US President Donald Trump visit the Temple of Heaven on May 14, 2026 in Beijing, China.

China Pool | Getty Images

President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping's aims of bolstering trade stability and clinching economic wins could be scrambled by a roiling debate over artificial intelligence, as well as shifting U.S. tariffs and an Iran war-related sanctions operation.

The two leaders are expected to seek ways to strengthen their fragile trade truce when they meet in Washington for their second face-to-face summit this year.

Despite gestures of goodwill surrounding the lead-up to the summit, the two sides continue to lob accusations and launch retaliatory trade actions.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday, said the "great respect" Trump and Xi have for each other trickles down to broader U.S.-China negotiations.

He then noted, "We had some deliverables that have not been completely fulfilled" by China as part of a trade agreement Trump and Xi reached in Busan, South Korea, nearly a year ago.

Some China analysts have raised concerns about the unusually top-down diplomatic arrangement between the two economic superpowers.

"A number of inconsistent viewpoints seem to be jostling each other," as Trump dictates "the overarching approach" toward China "while letting more negative actions occur at the margins," said Claire Reade, a senior associate with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The summit comes with less than six weeks left in a U.S. election cycle that has largely centered on Americans' cost of living concerns. Trump, whose polling marks on that key issue have sunk to new lows, has even more of an incentive to emerge from the summit with Xi touting some form of economic deal.

Here's where the U.S.-China trade relationship stands and what's at risk when Trump and Xi meet:

State of trade

Setting the table

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