Truth in Contrast: Calibrated Factual Evidence from Language Model Likelihoods

arXiv:2610.23527v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) encode substantial factual knowledge. Yet, estimating confidence in factual claims reliably remains challenging. We study likelihood-based factual confidence from the complementary perspectives of discrimination and calibration across multilingual factual statements. Specifically, we instantiate contrastive generative likelihoods as Contrastive Factual Evidence (CFE), which compares the likelihood of the same claim under competing factual and non-factual conditions, and derive its probabilistic counterpart, the Contrastive Factual Posterior (CFP). We show analytically that CFP calibration depends on the differential error between the two surrogate conditionals, allowing errors shared across them to cancel and yield tighter calibration bounds. Empirically, CFP substantially improves calibration while maintaining factual discrimination comparable to its strongest competitor. Nonetheless, discrimination is uniformly weak across methods in lower-resource languages, which simultaneously undermines the utility of the measured calibration. To this end, we interpret a likelihood geometry, within which an evidence-bearing direction is induced, along with an orthogonal evidence-invariant direction. In our investigation, we selectively align target-language claims with stronger English evidence only along the factual-evidence direction, improving discrimination and open-ended factual generation without target-language labels.