Verbalized and Internal Probabilities Are Coupled in Large Language Models

arXiv:2610.00827v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models carry an internal notion of uncertainty in their sampling distribution, i.e., the probabilities they place on generating one answer rather than another. They can also be asked to state a confidence, in words or as a number: a verbalized uncertainty. Prior work suggests that internal probabilities track relative frequencies in the training data, and that verbalized probabilities track explicit probabilistic assertions in the training data. However, we do not know whether these two readouts are aligned, except when frequencies and probabilistic assertions in the training data happen to align. This limits our understanding of when we can use verbalized uncertainties as a proxy for either training data frequencies, or a model's internal distribution. We resolve this gap by systematically exploring how LLMs probability readouts are impacted by training and in-context data, via intervening on the underlying uncertainty sources in the data. We find that both internal and verbalized probability readouts are impacted by both distributional and asserted uncertainty in the training data. Further, we find that verbalized and internal probabilities are aligned beyond what would be expected by independently tracking the same uncertainty sources, suggesting that verbalized probabilities can be used to probe a model's internal distribution.