Vision-Based Safe Human-Robot Collaboration with Uncertainty Guarantees

arXiv:2604.15221v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Safe human-robot collaboration (HRC) requires accurate human pose estimation and motion prediction to prevent critical collisions. Existing certifiable safe HRC approaches are highly conservative or rely on marker-based motion tracking, while vision-based pose estimators lack the statistical guarantees required for certification in accordance with ISO 13849-1. Hence, we propose a pipeline that predicts 3D human motion and strong probabilistic bounds on the prediction error using conformal prediction. A gradient-based monitor detects out-of-distribution input poses and replaces them with poses from past predicted motions to maintain smooth operation. The resulting conformal prediction sets directly integrate into the provably safe HRC approach SARA shield. In experiments on the Human3.6M dataset and a real-world HRC setting, our conformal prediction sets have a 7.6 times smaller volume than model-based predictions, and we bound the probability of a dangerous failure per hour by 9.5E-7 with 99.999 % confidence under our test distribution, which is necessary but not sufficient for performance level d. All code and models are available at https://jakob-thumm.com/conformal_human_motion_prediction/.