When Can We Trust the Matching Principle? Robust Deployment Geometry Under Finite-Sample and Model Uncertainty

arXiv:2610.02894v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Match only geometry you can identify; otherwise spread the penalty. We quantify that decision by the trust ratio tau = epsilon / gamma (estimation uncertainty over spectral separation). Under the linear-quadratic Matching response, oracle-relative drift between estimated and oracle projector matching scales as tau^2 for probes in the chosen top-r deployment subspace -- O(tau^2) in the Davis-Kahan separation region tau < 1/2, with practical usefulness depending on constants. Confidence-Calibrated Matching (CCM) turns tau into a policy -- directional when tau is small, progressively isotropic when not -- with thresholds from calibration, not from the theorem (match sits in the separation region; soft is mostly heuristic). Experiments show both regimes, including UCI HAR embeddings where always-match is worse than abstain on every cell.