Continuous modeling of manipulative participation for stance analysis: Online discourse on the 2024 Street Animal Law in T\"urkiye

arXiv:2611.11576v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Studies of online political discourse commonly infer public opinion through stance analysis while implicitly assuming that observed user participation is authentic. Meanwhile, studies focusing on detecting manipulative participation are typically modeling it as a binary phenomenon, overlooking the varying degrees to which users may engage in coordinated or inauthentic behavior. This study proposes a continuous modeling approach for manipulative participation and examines its integration with stance analysis. Using online discourse on the 2024 Street Animal Law in T\"urkiye as a case study, we collected a dataset comprising 7,320,574 tweets from 537,994 users. From this corpus, 301 users were selected through a high-information sampling strategy and manually annotated by domain experts using a 10-criterion rubric that yields user-level continuous manipulative participation scores. Evaluation under a unified user-level cross-validation protocol showed that the proposed framework accurately estimates both manipulative participation and user stance, with gradient boosting methods providing the best manipulative participation estimates and BERTurk achieving the highest stance classification performance. External validation on an independently annotated user set demonstrated good generalization performance. The findings support modeling manipulative participation as a continuous construct rather than a binary label, providing a more informative basis for computational analyses of the relationship between manipulative participation and stance in online political discourse.