DECK: A Consistency x Confidence Taxonomy of LLM Hallucinations

arXiv:2606.02289v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Existing hallucination taxonomies classify LLM errors by what is wrong with the output -- memorised misconceptions, reasoning failures, fluent fabrications -- but cannot answer a different question: which uncertainty scorer would have caught this error? We propose a complementary taxonomy that classifies errors by their detectability signature, the signal a scorer family would read. The DECK taxonomy is a 2x2 partition along inter-sample consistency and token-level confidence into four regimes (Drift, Entrenched, Confabulation, Knotted) that yields a falsifiable blind-spot map: black-box consistency scorers have signal in D and C, white-box token-probability scorers in K and C, and only an LLM-as-a-Judge with independent pretraining can detect E. Across three models and four short-form QA datasets we test this map two ways: judge-involving scorer disagreements concentrate in each family's predicted blind-spot cells, and external labels (SelfAware unanswerable, HaluEval adversarial, PopQA entity popularity) land in the predicted cells, robustly to cross-fitted thresholds. We further identify a universal blind spot of output-level UQ: on knowledge-gap inputs where the generator emits confident, repeatable fabrications, every output-level family collapses by construction. A linear probe on Llama-3-8B's final-layer hidden states also falls to chance, with or without quantisation, though an intermediate layer retains weak signal.