Every Alarm Has a Cause: An Open Generator of Telecom Alarm Storms with Exact Root Causes, Bound to NORIA-O, RFC 8632 and TMF642

arXiv:2610.30004v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Alarm root-cause analysis is studied on data that cannot be shared. Operator logs are confidential, so what the field publishes is a causal graph between alarm types rather than per-incident causes, a fixed scenario set, gated, or never released. Two recent benchmarks carry per-incident root causes at scale; neither states a download location or a licence. We give a generator rather than a dataset. It runs on real backbone topologies from the Internet Topology Zoo and records the exact root cause and the propagation path of every alarm -- a by-product of generation, not a labelling pass. Every emitted field binds to a term in NORIA-O, RFC 8632, RFC 8345 or TMF642, and an unknown term fails the run. We ship fixed configurations, splits, a scorer and nine baselines. A one-line rule -- rank the device that raised the earliest critical alarm -- takes top-1 at 0.650 against 0.575 for our own temporal method, and wins 13 of 15 runs over three backbones and five seeds. An LLM given the same view reaches 0.600, the same model allowed to query the graph 0.625, and the rule wins on real operator alarms too, at 0.773: a property of alarm streams, not of our generator. One fault class separates the table: when a site loses power its PoP reports nothing, so every method that ranks alarmed devices scores 0.000 or near it, while the two that walk the topology to a silent candidate take 1.000 and 0.833.