Zero-Compute Cross-Lingual Transferability Estimation Using Typological Feature Proxies

arXiv:2609.39640v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Cross-lingual transfer describes how knowledge in a source language benefits a target language. Measuring it quantitatively requires broad multilingual pre-training, as prior work has done with cross-lingual transfer matrices. We ask whether transfer is predictable from freely available typological features, and whether the prominence of high-resource source languages reflects typology or data quality and quantity. We show that typological databases contain cheap and dense signals about cross-lingual transfer. Our typology-only random forest on a 24-language prior-work transfer matrix scores leave-one-language-out $\rho{=}0.705$ and $R^2{=}0.49$, beating a non-typological control at $\rho{=}0.62$, which verifies the ability of typology-only predictions to reconstruct costly measured cross-lingual transfer. The signal survives leave-one-script-out and leave-one-family-out protocols, so script and family confounding do not explain the effect. By decomposing the transfer into a typology term and a resource-and-script bias term, we find the best-source ranking sensitive to this bias. In contrast, typology is not affected by this bias, which makes it a zero-compute screening tool that replaces hundreds of training runs with a model fit. Our code is available \href{https://github.com/dharmsen/typo-x-ling-transfer}{here}.